Far Flung Events

As I reflect on Brexit, I am wondering whether my life is yoked to far flung events that are beyond my control and, in some cases, events that I had no inkling were brewing until shit hit the fan.

This is particularly true of events that involve Britain and the US. [Caveat Emptor: I am an aspiring futurologist and a student of eschatology – though I am not a fan of fate or destiny]

What got me thinking was the UK timeline of EU membership (BBC) and in particular what happened in 1992. I had just graduated and was offered a job by Schlumberger; only for them to withdraw at the last minute due to “reduced attrition”. Despite my level of education (and line of industry), it was actually the first time I came across the word “attrition”. I think I spent several days – in anger – looking up that word.

Now, as I reflect on that event, it hit me that I was but collateral damage in a range of wider political and economic events happening to the UK at that time.  It was the year and almost exactly to the day that I “lost” my first job, that Britain crashed out of ERM (and made George Soros a billionaire extraordinaire). Had I known the wider context of my prospective employer’s decision, perhaps I would have ridden the wave of disgruntlement instead of taking the first flight home.

Of course, I should not berate myself too hard because I guess I was, like the average student, wet on the ears and more focused on pub crawling that on world affairs and how they impact me.

Fast forward to 2001. Yes 9/11. By this time, I was a bit more worldly. Over the years I had become a news junkie. Not only of local events but far flung local ones that had no import on me other than filling up my grey matter with junk anecdotes that I would use to illuminate my pub conversations. This time I was in the US on an H1B Visa blissfully unaware that my life would be turned upside down because of 9/11 [To say my wife hates (yes even in death) Bin Laden, is an understatement of, literally, global proportion].

Once again, I should not berate myself too hard. I mean even people that get paid to think ahead, had no inkling of the scenario. Nonetheless, I once again found myself on the receiving end of events that had no idea they would happen, and even if I knew they would, were beyond my control. [Side Note: Let us say I was aware of the event happening, can you imagine the reaction I would get trying to get the authorities to act to prevent said event?]

In contrast to the UK debacle, I did try to ride the wave of disgruntlement but then at that age I had lost my innocence, and would not countenance playing hide and seek with ICE – not with a young family in tow.

So, what is next event that I have no idea is brewing that I must watch out for and, most importantly, how do I take advantage of it before, during and after it happens?

Brexit? Coronavirus or its next equivalent? Trade war? Humans on Mars (in my lifetime)? General AI?

Maybe it is true that the future is indeed written on our backs: we only get to see it either through the eyes of a third-party (if we can believe them) or, in hindsight, with a mirror (when it’s too late).

Of course, it is not all doom and gloom. The release of Mandela, an event that happened far away from me, has had a direct positive impact on my life; and on a much smaller scale so had the awarding of government scholarships to deserving students no matter their backgrounds. Of course, one would argue that, the latter event required some prior work from me. That is true and my counterargument is that, that is true for all future events, even if, as was in this case, I had no inkling the government even offered such scholarships.  

Preamble

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I'm 40 years old [At the time, December 31, 2008, of writing].

My grandparents, probably born in the middle-to-late 19th Century, lived in a mud hut with thatch for a roof and earth for the floor. Time was measured in seasons and moons. Ten, twenty, thirty-year plans were unknown to them. “What was a 'year'? Who lived that long?” they would have asked. The only taxes they knew were non-enforceable contributions to the local chief. Usury was unheard of. Wars were fought face-to-face with the chiefs personally leading the fight.

Their lives were brutal and short but sweet.

My father was born circa 1920. As an adult in colonial Africa, he lived in a tiny, mud-bricked house with thin tin coated steel sheets for a roof and the thinnest layer of concrete for the floor.

He knew about taxes. There was an enforceable hut tax in his era that subjugated village chiefs, who were by then reduced to headmen, collected from their subjects – whether one had an income or not. The tax system was designed to force my father's generation to seek employment. Which they did, and it, at least, drove them from living in mud-huts to living in mud-bricked houses.

A small improvement, you would say.

He knew about interest rates or its equivalent; not least from local Shylocks who always demanded more than they he had borrowed. Dad lived in debt until after his retirement when he could not be lent money anymore. But as tradition dictated he could not directly admit it to us, his children, despite the fact that we occasionally witnessed the parasitical relationships with his lenders. Thus he missed the opportunity to instil in us the discipline of living within our means.

And he barely understood inflation, that is, if he had heard about it.

He could "see" beyond a year but I doubt he ever adequately planned for what would happen beyond that. Ten, twenty, thirty-year plans were still a foreign concept to his generation [the generation, which, by the way, became our first liberation leaders].

Take for example, concrete. It was a novelty and even the thinnest of layers seemed to last “forever”. Even when it started cracking after a year or so to reveal the earth underneath, it did not bother them as that is the kind of floor on which they grew up. It does not require a leap of logic to imagine our new leaders neglecting the maintenance of tarred roads – another novelty - especially when told they would last twenty years [with regular maintenance of course].

In a nutshell my Dad’s life, though somewhat improved, was a daily struggle.

I was born in 1968. My place and date of birth was actually recorded [March 2, 1968]. However, due to a combination of factors - a house fire that consumed my birth records, forgetful minds and without a tradition of celebrating birthdays – I came up with my own date of birth [April 12, 1968][after a few enquiries very early on in my life].

And, after learning the above, you still wonder why western [and dare I say mostly northerly] star astrology does not apply to (older and mostly southerly) Africans?

I was born "free". Post colonial.

Our liberation leaders, despite their shortcomings, saw to it that the post-colonial generation received adequate, albeit western, education. So you’d say I am fairly educated.

In my eyes, a house with concrete for a floor is unfinished. At the very least it must be tiled or carpeted. My generation has moved on from thin steel sheets, through asbestos to a ceiling under slate roof tiles; from mud untreated bricks to face bricks.

I know quite a bit about the world of finance, the interplay between inflation and interest rates, about stock exchanges and the trading of shares, coupons and derivates. I know about investments, unit trusts and, on the dark-side, about pyramid schemes and the like.

I can and have had detailed five, less-detailed ten and rough twenty-year plans. I can "see" the future. Maintenance is second nature, for I know, nothing, absolutely nothing, lasts forever - including earth itself and possibly the entire universe.

But I live in debt. My life, though somewhat greatly improved, is a monthly struggle.

So what is it that I must relay to my children and my children’s children so they may prosper beyond their imagination?

It starts with a belief system of family and community values passed on and improved upon at a personal and collective level from one generation to the next.

That is the thread, the secret if you so wish, that runs through some of the great societies that have built monuments that have lasted for millennia.

My Belief System

If I have a hundred bucks and nine impoverished families to look after, do I share the hundred bucks equally among us or do I try to multiply the hundred bucks so I can have a much larger pie to share?

African ubuntu – and dare I say Christian belief – implies that you must share even the little that you have.

I disagree.

I believe in the individual. I know that seems to fly in the face of African ubuntu because, according to ubuntu, if one person manages to rise above the community the entire community must rise with him or her [as long as that person has the community at heart, of course]. Sharing the little hundred bucks among the community may lift the community a little bit up, but I believe, would prolong the stagnation.

Of course the perenial question is how high must one rise above the community before one begins to share? It is relative. For example, if an impoverished community came together and ensured one of their own made it all the way to university and a successful career, it would be expected that such an individual should plough back the gains. For such a community, an individual reaching university would be success in itself. However, for the now enlightened individual that would just be the beginning. A first step on the corporate or business ladder may not be sufficient. But somewhere along the line, before one hits the “jackpot” one has to start ploughing back.

Individualism is a cornerstone of both liberal and conservative thought. I, therefore, consider myself a conservative liberal African.

The emphasis is on African, for the simple reason that my belief system is a sinew of my African-ness with all the glory and the garbage that comes with being African.

.../ to be continued

Time and Money

You may have noticed that the themes of time and money run throughout my introduction. The reason is simple. The lack of internalisation of the Western concepts of time and money is at the core of most of Africa’s personal and national problems.

Despite Africa’s vast resources, we have failed to transform our lives from mainly subsistence living to large-scale integrated economies. The reasons are many but can be distilled to a lack of skills, lack of planning and corruption.

Skill is a matter of history, while planning is factor of time and corruption is an abuse of money. Without history, coupled with a lack of understanding of time and money, you are not only lost but blind and crippled too.

Ask any number of people what money is. I doubt you’ll get a consistence response. Most say time is money which seems, to me, rather like a tongue-in-cheek definition of time and not money. I prefer to say that money is time. Others say money is the root of all evil. I say the lack of money is the root of all evil. Why do people steal, commit fraud, accept bribes? Because they don’t have the means – money - to acquire that which their heart desires; so they commit evil instead.

Money represents value.

Some might add that money, by itself has value too. If you believe that then you know little about inflation which can render money itself valueless while leaving those things that money represents still valuable.

Inflation expresses the fact that the value of anything changes over a period of time. Thus the value of a car today would be different tomorrow and the thing that represents that value – money- would invariably change too. The difference is expressed as inflation.

Money is an abstract idea.

Perhaps the most abstract idea with the most concrete manifestations known to man.

.../ to be continued